3-pointers and the Big Man

Take a peek at the 3-point proficiency of players such as Damon Jones, Jason Williams, James Posey, Tim Thomas, and others when they're getting more open looks as defenses collapse inside or are disoriented in transition. These guys are shooting a fairly consistent 5 percentage points above their career averages. That's a big difference! The entire league is roughly plus or minus 3 percentage points from 36% on threes. The Pistons, Spurs and Suns are 1,2,4 in the league rankings of 3pt% differential--making these shots and keeping your opponent from sinking them makes a quick difference in the game score. If your big man can convert at a high percentage down low, the double team is leaving a guy open on the perimeter. Phoenix is the most efficient offense in the league at 1.08 points per attempt, versus a league average of about 1.06. That's less than one percentage point at an average FG value of a bit over 2 points (roughly 22% of league attempts are 3s, but if you hit them like the Suns, you might launch them at a 25 or 30% rate.) You can see how the efficiency of the basic inside-outside game can lead to a lot of wins!

Houston Rockets a Miami clone?

It is amazing to watch Dwayne Wade take over the playoff series versus the Pistons, who were at many times during this season a seemingly unbeatable team. There are some great teams emerging around young stars these days. I wonder if Tracy McGrady can finally get healthy from his back problems and become the megastar he was in Orlando, now able to take advantage of a finally-dominant Yao Ming and a stronger supporting cast. Yao's late season saw him getting to the line, weathering more minutes, and sinking more of his shots. These two teams have their big men and penetrators in place, as well as the Haslem/Howard traditional workman power forward to go with a few perimeter shooters. Clearly Miami is the better team at the moment, but with a little tweaking, Houston could develop the depth to compete with Miami and take its chances with T-Mac's length and 3pt shooting and Yao's proficiency at the stripe, none of which Miami can match.

Shaq and the Charity Stripe

If Shaq could shoot in the 60-70% range, he would tack on another 2-4 points a game with no more attempts. The middle 80% of teams are plus or minus 4 in point differential, so this would be very helpful in winning more games. In fact, he could go from possibly trying to avoid going to the line to relishing his trips to the line. Teams would really need to keep the ball out of Shaq's hands. It would take Hack-a-Shaq away and leave Miami riding Shaq to perhaps near 1.2 points each trip down the floor--by far the best offensive efficiency in the league.

If that's not enough, a season of Shaq shooting FTs at a more Yao-like percentage would be one of truly historic levels of offensive efficiency that would further distinguish Shaq among the greatest players ever. Are you listening, big guy??